DragonTrader is still on vacations until end of August, but market commentaries still come for another two weeks. Totally free as usual!
S&P500 has crossed blue down sloping reaction line since last post. The money is still flowing in, so I would not be surprised movement still continues for a while. Should it reverse during my August vacations, please alert so everyone can profit from a little short!
As the Fed is printing lots of money, it flows in the stock market but also in Gold and possibly some cryptocurrencies as well. Diversification? Possibly. Or you need to see the other way round: as you print more money, the value of money decreases, so price of Gold goes up! Volume of available gold does not change a lot year over year, and countries wealth (GDP) is going down due to little virus, so gold is safe harbor! See, if dollar has been disconnected from Gold more that 45 years ago, people still think in gold terms!
It is even better for Silver, but you need to ask a drunk economist reason for this strong uptrend!
I was moderately bearish on Bitcoin but the graph starts to show something different. First, the money is flowing in as shown by accumulation distribution indicator and there is now a hidden divergence with WAD. Makes me think that an up move is possible, the post-halving rally everyone has been expected for a while! Tip: look at Ethereum, might be even more interesting!
We are middle of the summer and your goal is to get rest, enjoy the sunshine, get enough sleep and stop worrying about nothing.
I got very genuine comments over the last months, most positive, and overall very motivating. Now I see many comments copy / pasted while changing one word by an other, but since I have elephant memory, I remember every comment written previously. Please take a little time to think before writing! I also enjoyed the worst comments a blog can get “you text is so full of misspelling that it is not readable, I am very disappointed” (sic, I had to fix the spelling): you are excluded, man, do not come back!
Let’s get back to market summer conditions. S&P500 is about to reach the 2 downward sloping reaction lines. Will it go through unhurt? We will know in coming days. I have moved my stop up to 3050.
Bitcoin is also lazily resting on the random path. I am an unconvinced bear, eying at the bottom indicator to come back up the zero line. Wait and see!
Gold (or even better Silver) is the place to be for now (outside stocks). No cloud in the horizon, for a golden suntan! A stop at 1750$ seems a good idea to me!
S&P500 is still hesitating where to go, bears are now predicting a new market crash because of a stupid virus that can not be kept under control in the US and bulls are thinking that Fed is standing, ready to do whatever is needed to sustain the markets….
I introduced the Ferrari trading tool in previous post. As you can see, we reached also the red zone. Either you jumped out at that time or… your stop is taking care of securing your profits, especially should the trend continue, you are ready to drive it along!
With a stop positioned at 2956, you can switch off your screen and enjoy the sunshine!
Some say that markets are not allowed to go down any more. Many PMI figures will be published today, as well as new houses selling numbers. As usual, there will be plenty of comments about how markets have gone up or down by a tiny 0.x% because investors like or disliked the numbers. Which is absolutely ridiculous, it is just noise commenting! You should always look at wider charts and understand the underlying movements!
S&P kagi line is still yang so it is no surprise we are still in up market.
There is a divergence between Williams A&D and its momentum just below, but it is just a warning, no action needed for now. Your stop should be around 2960 and you would better go out and enjoy the sunshine!
S&P500 seems to continue sliding along reaction line but, as you can see, the 3 moving averages are still up, more or less for the red one.Markets may decide to move up again, we will see. A bit too early to to say markets are resuming the down trend. Objective 2680 unchanged but unlikely for now!
What is happening? It is all about COVID-19 again. The epidemic is more or less, rather less than more, under control. There are still hundreds of new cases in most countries every day, even those who have completely stopped the containment measures. If people wear a mask, of course, odds are in their favor they will not catch it. But what about all these demonstration throughout the world? Nothing is really under control, safe vaccine is long way before being available. It is likely markets are going to jump up and down a few times along pandemic making trends or moving sideways!
I wrote a warning on Monday morning (see previous post) that passing a reaction line is a sometime precarious event and markets usually make tops or bottoms on this occasion. Please remember that tops are mirrors of bottoms from the past. The accuracy is not perfect but if you ‘add’ the gaps, then you fall back on your feet!
Similar to previous market action shown in ellipse, S&P500 has moved above the reaction line and then fell down back on it yesterday. In theory, our drunkard can walk down to 2800 and 2685 afterwards. The uptrend is still there, so you should not worry too much and it will open some buying opportunities on many stocks already in up-trend.
A quick note about comments
While I see genuine comments, I guess many are also an opportunity to post links to your own business. While I do not mind which business you are in, I do think that relying on chance of someone clicking on your name in the comments section is not the best way to get opportunities for you. I do understand that even one click out of ten thousands can make your business profitable but it clearly does not help the blog writer to have comments from ‘b.tt pl.g’ or ‘huge cl.t’. Sorry you should not read this if you are under 18. I am not after huge audience, only people authentically interested by the subject. From now on, please consider a cool name like ‘Warren B.’ or ‘Barrack O.’ and you can still link to your site if you wish. I will be more cautious from now on when validating comments!
Warning signals conjunction are always important to watch!
The kagi line is closing to Bollinger upper band. From there, it can go through or reverse. In any case, it is worth securing partial profits or revise stops upwards.
On candlestick chart, price is also closing to reaction line shown last week. If it goes through, there is virtually no resistance until next one. Pretty much like a plane taking off, speed is important for air support under the wings. The opposite scenario is a sliding down the reaction line but we have yet to get a confirmation before looking deeper this assumption.
Two synchronous warnings should wake up your skeptical bull mindset!
Hello! Mister Market is very optimistic, has gone through the last 2 reactions lines and has stumbled also further from the random path.
This optimism is really puzzling if you are looking at the news on TV but remember that S&P500 is driven mainly by the GAFA’s and Internet sector is big winner of the pandemic. Home office has proved a success for many companies and is going to be a source for cost reduction in the months ahead. Crisis are always the time when creativity works best and remote office was a solution only waiting for the opportunity to prove itself useful in crisis and at any all time!
What do we need to do now? Of course, keep a close watch on index evolution as it scrolls through upcoming reaction lines. There are then many stocks that are still low without any reason other than cash has flown to immediate winners such as Amazon, …. The other sectors such as 5G will restart shortly, American Towers is already making new all time highs! Fasten you seat belts and enjoy the rides!
I am sure you have noticed by now that this blog is totally original and I will not cover the basic indicators, their usage, … There are millions of sites that copy/paste from each other and you won’t learn from them anything but the basics. It is always a good idea to come back to basics, but profitable trading is about having an edge, so none of basic indicators work for very long, when too many traders are using one, market becomes sort of immune to it!
With this blog, I aim to help you kick some ideas down the road and if you wish you can share on this blog. Maybe it does not work for you as expected, but it may inspire others. Just drop me an email (see pinned message) and I will publish your article!
Let me share a story. For very long years, I made a few trades per year and had absolutely no idea how to get in or to get out. so I did some buy and hold based on randomly selected analysis, watching the stocks loose as much as 50% then going back up… And one morning I had an idea: imagine a very tall tree and there is a big coconut hanging from the top branches and a monkey happens to walk by and being thirsty. The easiest part of course is climbing, reaching the top, secure yourself to branches with feet and one hand while extending the other hand to take the fruit. Then suddenly, one branches cracks. You are still hanging from one branch with one hand but you are still safe, sort of! But for how long? The second branch is bending now and you must make a decision: free fall to the ground (not a good idea) or jump down other branches. This is how I started designing my first trailing stop! See? Let me know how you come up with trading strategies, fun to share and comment!
I still have plenty of ideas to share. I will not share publicly the details of my very best strategy because I am using it, but there is no problem sharing older research material that you can choose to improve on your side and share with the club! Just to give you an idea, we will look at in future posts:
Markets can trend and this is due to their random nature. See here.
The randomness can be measured by volatility. The raw volatility (be it 1-day momentum, True Range, …) is the one to be analyzed and understood
You should not try to confirm stubbornly a strategy because cases where your strategy does not work surely exist and might even be the most profitable cases! Market’s got some sense of humor :-))
Now, as title implies, let’s look at S&P500 and where it is going!
As a continuation from previous post, I have left the random walk path and you can see that our drunken man does not seem capable to go more that 2 steps away from the main path.
If you have read my initial posts, you know I like a lot Action/Reaction lines because tops and bottoms are often building on those. Here we are precisely with 2 solid blue lines across the path. Unless S&500 goes through forcefully, we are in for a reversal. I have included Accumulation / Distribution at the bottom, which is a good indicator when you have nothing better, just add a 20-days simple moving average. There is not much energy: look at the slope of price versus indicator! We need some very good news to move up now! So yes, I would wait a few more days to see where we are going and go short if confirmed for an objective at 2400. This is absolutely no advice!!!
