Andrew Pitchforks are not just a ‘channel’ type, they are a very accurate trading and market anticipation technique with no equivalent. I will focus today on the basic usage, laying out a basic pitchfork on a chart, getting a buy or short signal, getting confirmation, placing stops and estimating some target areas. Big agenda, isn’t it?
Let’s start immediately. Open a chart and select the last 4 peaks and troughs that must alternate. If you are not sure, you can use fractals or oscillators that go above and below zero, even average. Your eyes are also a good indicator :-))) Don’t worry about having the ‘right’ pivot points, each set of pivot have a story to say and Dr Andrew never put rules to select these points. We will see in other posts how to validate a pitchfork, that is more advanced discussion.
As a beginner pitchfork trader, make sure you the 4 pivots you selected form a wedge, like this:
Note the numbering. Last pivot is always called for 4.
Now we can draw our first pitchfork by selecting pivots 1, 2 and 3:
Pitchfork is made median line, 2 median lines high (MLH) parallel to median lines. Line 1-3 is called Hagopian line. Note that both median and Hagopian line are slopping down.
Buy Signal. The basic buy signal is when prices (a full candle) exit the pitchfork. Easy!
Confirmation After exiting the pitchfork, prices usually retest the MLH, which can also be a good entry point.
More secured entry An other possible entry is after breaking the Hagopian line. Note that it can be retested as well before price actually start going up.
Stop Loss – Assume pivot 4 as a good level for stop loss for now
Target Price Case 1. When price don’t reach the median line like in our case, it is expected that prices will go back to pivot 3 level with 80% confidence, and possibly much higher.
Target Prices Case 2. We draw parallel lines to median line. Like this:
Then we draw a new pitchfork by selecting pivots 2, 3 and 4.
That is the trick now! Assuming both pitchfork are valid (more in future post), the intersections of MLH, medians and warning lines are potential target prices, defined with also a timing!!! You can say price should reach this price by this time wiht pretty good accuracy.
Let’s look into the future:
As you can see, price went up though it did not reach pivot level (80% probability only!). I went beyond the median anyway. Because pivot 4 was not a the median (remember the hybrid pitchfork?), intersections are not accurate here.
That is the basic story. Hope you noted the assumptions. We have to study what to do when pivots do not form a wedge, how to validate a pitchfork, etc, etc…
If you are onto trading, pretty sure you have heard about Andrew pitchforks which finance barely describes as a channel tool. As long as prices are inside a channel, the slope of the pitchfork indicates the trend and you should open positions only in direction of the trend.
That is a very limited and biased view of Andrew pitchforks, which is a complete trading system (with signals, stop, target prices…). True enough, it is hard to master and extremely difficult to automate. Moreover pitchforks are only the simplied view of action-reaction lines already mentioned in this blog. To make it more complicated, Dr Alan Andrew never revealed in written form at least all the secrets of this trading system. I think I have uncovered many of them, and these will be revealed to you in coming posts!
I assume now you know a bit about Andrew pitchforks and will introduce you to the family. For a safe start, you select 3 consecutive pivot points and draw a basic pitchfork:
You may also know the Schiff or 50% pitchfork
But do you know these ones?
All these pitchforks can be used on any chart any time frame. Your goal is to know WHEN to use each one pending on market conditions. Which we will see in later posts.
I started this blog during first containment. I was still trading stocks at that time. Was only stock swing trading over several weeks. Truth is, without leverage, a small stock portfolio will not make a lot more wealthy, even dividends included and re-invested.
So it took me time to to think about intraday trading, porting some ideas, optimizing… While there will be some posts here from time to time, all the action takes place in Telegram group mentioned in post just below. If you liked the blog, please make sure to come and talk.
You know what? Communism has failed. Ecologist predictions of last 50 years have all failed. Big pharma have failed to find a vaccine against AIDS. Titanic has failed to cross Atlantic Ocean. Napoleon has failed creating a kind of European union. Romans have failed to keep their Empire together.
History is full of miserable failures but we don’t seem to learn from our mistakes. Nassim Taleb has found that somehighly improbable events ending up with drastic consequences could be due to a black swam. The idea behind if that you have never seen a black swam, you probably doubt they exist, not talking about predicting their showing up!
Was Covid a black swam? If you are a bit interested in big pharma history, you would know how they work. Their life would be very boring without epidemics, or even better pandemics where one can start making very good business with medicine, vaccine, medicine to cope with vaccine adverse reactions, improved vaccines, new medicine even long after the virus have completely disappeared. Since pandemics do not show up that often, it is best to create them, or at least let know all of us that there is one potentially very harming lurking by the corner of the street. This is what happened with AIDS, they said it was discovered in San Francisco, without giving any details, and then people started to get feared… fortunately this time, they could find a sellable vaccine. But how many times did they try? H1N1, Spanish Flu, …. No Covid is not a black swam, it has been long clear enough big pharma would try an other time to make big money!
Now if black reminds you of dark times, of morbidity, of whatever ghost stories, … all we need now is a big blue swam of hope!
Let’s be honest. Black swams are not that common but blue ones are even more rare, they will only show up if we all want it to appear!
Blue color is about hope, a bright future, water and sky, peacefulness, it brings positive values and tends to relax the eyes (try it, look at a blue sky!). We don’t want to talk black things any more: illness, death, mysterious societies, … As long as we play their game, they have the winning cards. If we have a strong positive message, they will be just ignored. Let me take one example: many doctors and health care workers have lost their job for rightfully rejecting the jab. What about they start a new life preventing people for becoming sick? Even communist party in China in the 1950’s pushed people to practice taichi chuan so that country is full of healthy people (that was before McDonald arrived in China). There is a lot to be built upon, it is not even secret!
Now let’s see if there is some positive news on the market!
S&P500 seems to be taking a bearish turn. The smoothed ROC has turned negative but careful there are hidden divergence (which I am therefore not showing ;-)) We have to stay optimistic!
Just look at how nice the S&P500 has sticked to the dotted warning line on this weekly chart. If index returns to green line (the random walk path), everyone can understand the bullish trend is intact.
Bitcoin chart is unchanged. I have seen many Hoorays with last days price action, but be careful!
Gold is still is in a flat market. Let’s look at weekly chart just below. As long as the price is enclosed in the green area, you can take the opportunity to accumulate. Price is probably kept under control by institutions which think we are stupid enough and won’t buy gold at this price! You bet! Inflation is here, hyper-inflation will come sooner or later, we will see an other big financial failure, and everybody knows having gold is the safest way to go through any crisis. We have a second solution which is Bitcoin, I will write something about it in an other post.
Uranium is one of them ressources to have these days, so I wrote a few weeks ago. It has gone up to one my highest warning lines. Now it is back to random walk path which is undoubtedly a nice entry area. As explained previously, wind farms and solar panels won’t do the work!
Platinium may wake up in coming weeks. Divergence with smoothed ROC, hitting the first warning line and buy signals on short term indicator. We are almost there.
That’s it for today. Aim at that blue swam! And until next time, trade safely!
Have you noticed any inflation? Pasta price up, gaz price up, … Everything you can buy, price seems to go up! According to IMF, it is only temporary and if you say otherwise, you are a conspiracy theorist! I must be one then :-))
Covid Kingdom is still under construction and they want each and all of us to participate in this exciting new adventure where a few people own everything and you get nothing, you will be enslaved to your master. There is one thing however that will make them fail: they are extremely bad economists, they are playing with the money and the money is exploding right now into hyper inflation fireworks, which will signify the end of the game not too far away! Get Gold, get bits of Bitcoin and you should be safe.
Bulls are still out there, because plenty of cash is there so only few industrial constraints prevent from going higher faster. This is what we see on Semi Conductor index:
Price Channel have no specific sense but you see that the one I draw is in sync with medium and long term indicators. Only short term shows weakness. Silicium might be missing so companies like Qualcomm will only increase their selling price while waiting to manufacture more. There can still be a drop to 3000, which be a good oppoortunity to invest, especially in light of 5G deployments.
Coming back for a second on inflation, you can see below that ground coffee price has just doubled in 2021. Here is the deal: consider how many coffee you drink in a year, do you yourself a favor by buying stocks of a coffee company, they give dividends so you get free coffee!
I always mention oil on this blog, because without oil, our society will just stop! No more cars, no more plastic, … Green electricity will not replace oil. Take a note: green electricity will not replace oil. NEVER!
Crude oil is up 10% since last post. Good for your portfolio. Of course, you need to have many stocks of Exxon, BP, … if you want them to pay oil for your car with dividends. At least, it may buy you extra free coffee!
If you wonder why gaz is more and more expensive, just look at the chart: +128% since Jan 1st! This is not going to stop any time soon. Windfarms are deployed everywhere, but since wind is not a continuous supply, then you need a gas power plant to manage electrical grid. Gas supply being limited by other geopolitical issues, price can only go up!
Last one for today is Bitcoin. BTC is still quietly hanging around, gathering ressources for the next leg. This next leg will be up towards 100k$. That is because of wider adoption (Salvadore, …), it is safer than fiat money, it does not have a country (miners can hop to new country any time), transactions costs become faster and cheaper with Lightning network. While I expect price will go down to 35k$, I am waiting for this cheap entry!
That’s it for today. Until next time, trade safely!
Self-fulfilling prophecy, process through which an originally false expectation leads to its own confirmation. In a self-fulfilling prophecy an individual’s expectations about another person or entity eventually result in the other person or entity acting in ways that confirm the expectations.
A classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy is the bank failures during the Great Depression. Even banks on strong financial footing sometimes were driven to insolvency by bank runs. Often, if a false rumor started that the bank was insolvent (incapable of covering its deposits), a panic ensued, and depositors wanted to withdraw their money all at once before the bank’s cash ran out. When the bank could not cover all the withdrawals, it actually did become insolvent. Thus, an originally false belief led to its own fulfillment.
We live in a world full of narratives, that we are asked to believe without asking questions. Most common ones are “Covid19 jabs work as expected” or “climate will be so hot by 2100, it will be a great disaster”. Those making those prophecies have no capability to justify their statement, so they have engaged in a deception process, which they can no longer escape, or at the price of their future if any. For jab, it is easy to manipulate data, hide facts about adverse reactions, … For climate, you won’t be there to verify since you will have died from the jab long before!
Those who disagree with the official prophecies are nicknamed conspiracy theorists, which is the ultimate insult to stop any debate about any topic. Now, we can look at these conspiracies theorists prophecies, right? All that they have predicted for the last 18 months is happening even faster than they would have imagined: vaccination failures, lockdowns, blaming non vaccinated, future climate lockdown, forever pandemic, …. Self-fullfilling? No! With the help of internet, these guys are very well informed, and read quite well through the plans, which makes politicians nervous and forced to accelerate in vain attempt to take back control.
Here is one of those idiot:
J. Trudeau is an imbecile! He has taken away freedoms from the people for a ridiculous virus, freedoms that they fought to get over the centuries, and now he will only give them back only if they take a poison pill!
Here is my prophecy for Trudeau and alikes, when jabbed people will wake up. There will be no mercy!
Climate warmists are no better, they try to spread fear and have started almost 20 years ago a narrative prophecy, whereby climate is changing fast due to human produced CO2. There is of course no proof of relationship between CO2 level and climate behavior. At time of dinausors, CO2 level was twelve times higher, the tree were gigantic size compared to today… but anyway, since people don’t ask questions, it is a good reason for future climatic lock down, where all data will be manipulated, there will be C02 passports, and who knows, maybe even CO2 vaccines!
Here is the key: ASK QUESTIONS! DON’T GIVE UP UNTIL YOU GET A FULLY JUSTIFIED ANSWER! No adverse reactions on vaccine? Show me the proof! You want report from hospitals! CO2 impacting temperature? Show me the corresponding studies, correlations over centuries, and show me data integrity!
Coming back to finance, Janet Yellen makes a prophecy of severe upcoming financial crisis if debt ceiling is not raised: rocketing intest rates, stock market crash. It is precisely BECAUSE of this debt ceiling raise THAT interests rate will eventually go up (hyper-inflation like) and that stock market will crash. Course n°1 or 2 in economics for dummies!
So again you should wonder and ASK QUESTIONS before the corrupted governments tries to dry your accounts because you are not jabbed, you have a car that is polluting too much CO2 and you have invested in stock markets, you little stupid!
S&P is still in strong long term uptrend (above the blue river). There is a divergence (smoothed ROC second indicator) which points to possible trend change. Short term indicator at the bottom shows its third short signal in 3 months, which we can use for covering portfolio and more should market reverse).
Bitcoin is still up as well but you can see that bottom the short signal. Since we can not short Bitcoin, I am waiting for this short signal to reverse, might be the start of next move towards 75k$. Reason being US$ value going down as debt ceiling is raised. Philosophical question: is debt a currency? :-))
SOX (semi-conductor index) is important index to follow as it has some predicitive power. Semi-conductors are needed everywhere (for AI, 5G, …) so if sector is not looking good, expect some nasty wave on technology sector! What does it do? Slower than before but up! So my prediction is market crash is delayed! You can ask me questions, I will answer! :-))
Oil is flashing a buy signal. Not good if you need to refill your car tank but having stocks like OXY and you get a refund via stock price increase and good dividends! Do not forget electric cars together with wind farms and solar panels will just not work (you will be able to recharge your battery once a month at best and at huge price). Oil price will go up, same as CO2 explained last week! Get ready for it!
That’s it for today.
I might loose my job in the future in line with ‘no jab no job’ policy in my country. I will surely have plenty of time to write by then. You can support if you wish with BCH address:
That’s it for today. Until next time, trade safely!
Sorry for long silence. Plenty of business to attend, not talking fighting for freedom in our countries, which must be your priority! Go to demonstrations, make plans should the worst happen like in Australia, help as much as possible the revolution leaders whether they are politicians, lawyers, … Wake up the sheeps if you can and take names of all the traitors who are on their knees in front of corrupted governments!
I will try to help you make some money by in-depth market analysis. But remember it is no advice. You have to think about it and consider your own personal situation. Bet 100$ on a crypto if you can afford it and maybe you will get 1000$ sooner than you think, but keep in mind you might loose it all if you enter the market in awkward manner!
S&P500 is still going to the moon, so it seems. See how it bumps regularly on the dynamic random walk lines. Trend is still hugely positive. There is indeed a divergence with the PPO below, but only a close below the green channel would indicate market witness.
September is usually a poor month to invest, at least from statistical perspective. But worst month is … October! A drop to 4000 (lowest line below the last top) is in theory possible. If it happened, then just take the opportunity to invest in strong companies like Apple!
What is Crude Oil doing? It does not seem to be up and the down move started in July seems to be completed. If you don’t know, then market is just flat! Traders probably play in what they perceive as horizontal channel, we don’t care and wait for a bullish sign.
If there is one market where you shoud be invested, it is …. COAL!!! Coal is good for the planet, whatever those ecologists are telling you. Plants benefit from carbon and give you more oxygen. Carbon is not responsible for climate change, mother Earth does what it wants and men is responsible of all the chemical pollution, but ecologists will ignore your questions, should you ask. So Carbon is becoming more expensive through some interesting financial tricks (pollution allowance, …) and since solar pannels and wind farms will NEVER alone power the world, coal (and Uranium) are your best bet for years to come (unless humanity comes back to some reason!)
Crypto market is the place to be when cryptos fly towards the moon but a place to be avoided in other circumstances. Sure enough, central banks printing money by gigantic amounts, the value of any active asset, such as Bitcoin, can only go up, whatever happens, even if governments tried to forbid its existence, because … nobody is in charge! You kill it and it will be norn again 2 minutes later!
Bitcoin, pretty much like oil, is gently drifting horizontally. The south objective is 35k and northern one is 70k. This might continue for one or two months.
This is a more interesting crypto called SOLANA. Huge increase since mid-July (which I did not manage to catch!) and predictably, a retracement is on-going. I am looking at buying trade around 110$.
This is Solana 1h graph. Note the volatility! The objective of the down move has been reached, which you may call a support! This tells me it may not go further down for now.
That’s it for today. I will write at least once a week. If you want to support this blog, I am showing my Bitcoin Cash address on the right side! We never know where market is heading, so be careful.
2 years ago, I would never have thought we would have one day to fight for our freedom, freedom of movement, freedom of thought, freedom to be what we want to be! But here we are now, Europe is the epicenter of a move towards a new dictature. Pandemic is used as an excuse to put in place extremely intrusive systems that spy onto your private life 24 hours a day, 365 days per year. With the bold reasoning that it may help if a new pandemic showed up! I am making in this post bold predictions about what is coming up in the next few months!
Europe is the place that has been chosen to start putting in place the new dictature. 99% of media are now muzzled, journalists are telling only what they are allowed to, social media are flocked by pro-government trolls, people are muzzled physiscally and psychologically, including children at school. This is working currently because of this rule:
Jab is the tool that is going to give you back your freedom.
Sticking strictly to data provided by government themselves (meaning seriously underestimated), about 10% of jabbed experience serious adverse conditions, including death. There is no way to know what are the long term impacts to health. The vaccine does not immune you to the Covid as shown by UK figures and tatest so-called indian variant! My guess is it won’t be long now before even the jabbed people find out they have been too naive, they have been tricked to get a poison into their body, and there will be no pity for the folks responsible for these actions!
France has had a long history of fighting for freedom. I won’t surprise if the revolution starts from Paris. Though I am against violence, it is very likely that guillotine will be brought out of garage, government, senators and member of parliaments who did not protest will be trialed hastily by popular courts. Would be sound decision for religious extremists and other ‘woke’ organisation to make plans to leave the country or face similar judgement for lacking respect to France values.
Then there will be no stopping the wave of freedom. It will immediately spread to neighboring countries, including Switzerland kicking out the infamous World Economic Forum. Wave will continue to Eastern Europe, EU will be a ruin, Wladimir Poutine will likely find a way to control this wave in Russia. China may also be have some difficulties fighting its own hundreds of millions of people crying out for freedom. North Korean system may crash as well. The Federal System in USA will also explode, the central bankers throughout the world judged for their sheer incompetency. Eventually the folks responsible for the Covid ‘virus’ will be identified, it will much shorter than a main stream media investigation, maybe they should start flying to Mars right now for their safety.
I don’t know when this will start, but could be before the end of summer…
——- end of predictions ——
Back to a more commonplace subject. Markets have been very dull. Crypto market has been and still is down, so 100% cash. The stock market is painfully keeping its up trend, so I have not changed a line in my porfolio, not adding or removing anything. Based on above predictions, of course, I advise to get gold:
Gold is out of the water, first objective has been reached. Gold could reach 2600$ in less than 2 years. Should the revolution come, Euro will most likely go to zero, so you will be happy to have gold. Also remember that inflation is there and observable in consumer prices (perceived inflation). So Gold and gold miners are a good investment (but careful about scams if selecting a gold mine!!). That is a scam too:
Semi-conductor index SOX is up, next objective is 3500. Lack of semi-conductors on the markets drives the demand, so all those semi-conductors manufacturers will benefit.
Crypto market is bullish over the long term, but still bearish in medium term. Bitcoin still defines the trend, altcoins have trouble to decorrelate.
New target is 59k, lower that previously reached so I am a bit pessimistic for long term. Once again, if revolution occurs, then € or $ may go to zero, and people will likely choose a privacy coin to to exchange with each other. There are plenty of them: Komodo, Monero, Dash, Pirate Chain, … Maybe worth having a few dollars in each of them….
At last!! An expected and welcome correction on Bitcoin.
MACD is still positive so it is not a bearish trend change. Volumes are increasing on this last move, so it is very possible for Bitcoin to reach my random walk objective of 41800$
Once we get there, higher than the November low, we will obviously have an hidden divergence on MACD, Bitcoin should go back up from there. Careful, however, wherever Bitcoin goes afterwards back up, the market will be in unstable configuration, which might bring it down to 20k$, which be of course a huge buying opportunity. We are not there yet!