As written a few times, social network are stealing your time, your data, your ideas, and everything else they can. As of now, they tell who can tweet or put message on Facebook, they can remove any content they don’t like, … No surprise either when some say “Bitcoin is a worldwide scam”. It may be somehow, Bitcoin have no greater reality than fiat moneys, as their names indicate, but for traders in the short term, Bitcoin exists and the risk is just a bit bigger because of volatility. So it is worth having a strategy to enter at low volatility levels and decrease exposure when volatility is too high to your taste. If you don’t have or don’t want to spend too much time with custom indicators, just draw the infamous Bollinger bands and a long term MACD (parameter 48 and 64 for instance) on any financial web site as below:
MACD is positive, so the long term trend is up. No further question to be asked.
You can also see areas where those bands are getting closer to each other. Change the Bollinger moving average to 5 or 7 days if not visible enough.
Then if you compare where we are compared to previous bull run, as indicated with green smileys, we are barely at the beginning of ‘second phase’ of Bollinger bands, indicating the strong bull market will continue, albeit most likely on a quieter pace.
To get a peace of mind, consider the difference between last price and green moving average. That is your risk! If too far away (consider how many $ or € you could loose), just decrease the position size, thereby also securing some of the profits!
Markets will still be there next year, plenty of profits to be made! It is now worth taking a break, do not forget to monitor loosely your open positions or enter a stop order in the system. Of course, stay away from the virus!
Anaximander of Miletus, a Greek philosopher who lived in the 500s B.C.E. speculated that humans must have descended from some other type of creature, most likely fishes. This idea became later a scientific theory when Darwin wrote about it. But it still is a theory, because these days, no new species arise on earth, maybe man will change into superhuman with exoskeleton and additional processing power, but still is a man, form fit and and function wise! A counter theory is that at some point in time, a disruption occurred, allowing for instance more radiation from the Sun or stars on brain cells, that allow the monkey to become a different specie: the man! Don’t tell anyone I told you about this one ;-))
When a company changes so that it is not the same as before, because it has been eaten by a bigger one, or they invented a disruptive technology, it is not usually a smooth process. The new company may not have children (or clones) on its own because the market timing was missed. Or it may thrive in unusual manner and explode, what we call bubbles. This is exactly what we can observe and measure on our charts. Well, seems I have demonstrated life on earth is actually the output of a random process!
If you want to make money with trading (I did not say investing which is an other subject), you need board a ship that is willing to go northern direction. A disruptive technology is the right vector to use. Because, when something has the potential to disrupt, then it is attracting attention of big money, and you need to follow this track. If you are sticking to old business, then your gains may not outweigh your losses.
While I am it, instead of complaining of inefficiency of government in managing virus crisis, take time to think about disrupting something in a gently way. Become expert in one domain, then explode it with new concept, and sell you concept to make big money!
Now let’s look at the market and their disruption potential!
I will explain in future post about the usage of pitchforks. When you master many trading tools, you should change from time to time to avoid analysis being a boring task. So S&P500 escaped from a down trending pitchfork, thereby generating a buy signal. The MACD at the bottom being in positive area, and price being above moving averages, this was a good signal to check whether index was waking up from the horizontal move. Which it did! The slope looks good, we can stick with the market. Careful about any divergence with MACD… nothing to fear for now!
I am more concerned with Nasdaq. I is right on the 3-months objective and MACD is now lower than beginning of September. This is a divergence! Should you hold major index contributors, like Apple or Facebook, would be good to watch closer to market behavior and secure some gains!
Bitcoin is still pleasantly flying in the 10R area, 10R means it is 10 times the Risk I took when I entered beginning of October (stop under yellow zone). I have taken partial gain and will come back to it later. As long as MACD is positive, I am keeping a small line so I won’t miss out the beginning of next rally (the famous FOMO) and then I will add more to the line when the rally is confirmed!
Telsa has landed (pun intended after Starship issue!) me a cool 40% of gains without leverage. Same divergence as Nasdaq. I will wait lower!
That’s it! Until next time, trade disruptively but safely!
Sideways markets are the ones that hurt most traders because trend indicators fail miserably, stop are too far or too close, and those playing with highs and lows are punished when prices go out of the horizontal channel. As I warned in last post, those wanting to short Tesla had absolutely no chance going downwards. So it went up!
Bitcoin has also continued its rally towards new highs, the 2020 performance is now close to 200%! With such performance, you can trade only a small line of BTC and keep your money in safe harbor!
Speaking of safe harbor, Gold is now on the lips of many value investors because of dollars, euros, … printed by tons. Gold has been going down recently, stopped 8 steps from the stop, then went through… If it stops in 3 steps (1680$), we will have a nice hidden divergence, which will likely push Gold towards new highs!
Indexes like Nasdaq are still moving sideways. Volatility is pretty much like Tesla, quite high. So the northbound exit option must be privileged.
Last but not least, cannabis is waking up at last. Look at that beautiful Aurora Cannabis chart:
That’s it! I will start a new series of posts for beginners or almost. We will start by taking a fresh look at Andrew’s pitchfork. Until next time, trade safely!
Crazy times since last report. Look at that beautiful Bitcoin chart!
If you read this blog quite often, you know I entered at about 6000$, then again at 9500$ and again at 11000$ in October. The profit is substantial for the year, why bother trading stocks and all the related work about finding when are next quarterly results, announcement, or FDA validation for biotechs, … And of course, all stock market indexes are beaten! Same is true with many other cryptos….
Those of you interested in Tesla, I wrote that I would short Tesla at some point when the conditions are there. True enough Ferrari has fared better than Tesla recently but not a chance to short TSLA. Why not? Because the volatility is too high, it works like air balloon and protects from the crash. The volatility must be small or even tiny, so it can go up in a downfall. Volatility on Tesla is still very high (30%+, personal scale) so waiting mode!
The MACD has actually taken a down slope, but the green average is up, kind of hidden divergence. So Tesla stays up in the air. It has even gone above the down-sloping last reaction line and may still go up now, along with billions of dollars printed by the Fed.
Nasdaq is also floating mid-air, not knowing where to go. I would not be surprise if the index blows off the 12500 level and then continues up into next year (the famous short squeeze!)
Looks like the markets do not welcome this second coronavirus wave, not the wave itself, but rather the bad and worst decisions made by politicians! You should never panic because of sudden but announced meltdown, and again stick to our sound models!
S&P500: this will be the last time I am using these reaction lines (drawn end of March!), as the accuracy for top prediction is now failing. No big deal. Always double checking what the random walk model is telling me.
Following previous post, you see the MACD has been under its signal for a while, indicating downside pressure. First objective is 3094, due after the US elections, so another 10% to go. If might go further down, pending on lock-down conditions, as they say. The truth is that the market will go up if there are buyers, lock-down or not! If investors think all the GAFAM will be at bargain price when S&P500 reaches 3100, then market will resume up trend.
The SOX (or Semi-conductor Index) usually anticipates what’s coming up. No light to expect for now, as there is a divergence with MACD.
Speaking of Apple, the kagi graph is showing interesting things. A 3-buddhas top appeared by mid-September but because of strong uptrend, I deferred my idea of shorting Apple. Then a double window bottom has formed, a strong indication of further uptrend. Markets may be in bad mood for next few days but quarterly results may bring back confidence! Remember that the recent growth of Apple is before all due to buyback, a gift for shareholders who don’t get too much dividends otherwise. You might be bullish because of the upcoming 5G trend on smartphones, but this stock is overvalued somehow. The question is compared to what? There is no absolute reference!
Gold has reached its downward objective end of October but may still go down some more, which is very good opportunity to buy. Rationale: as countries are printing more money by tons, the value of money goes down, and Gold which is limited in quantity can only go up!
I wrote two weeks ago you should look at Bitcoin. It has gone up almost 20% already. On the way to 100k$!
Amid sad jobless figures and coronavirus new travel restrictions in Europe, markets may be in a strange mood but money flows by billions in stock market because bonds have ridiculous or negative yield. Interesting? No. This is noise. All this does not explain why you, as an investor, will pull the trigger to buy Apple or Tesla stock. Those so-called correlations between news and market are complete non sense!
Let’s go back to our sound mathematics based trading!
S&P after crossing reaction line in now back up, see how good those reactions lines to find bottoms (which you can’t play of course!). As explained in yesterday’s post, new 3-months objective is 3672, we are already 6-steps from the bottom, which is quite good. Indeed the tail winds may push prices horizontal for a few days, but next reaction line is far away, do not expect a reversal in the short term. No need to say you need a stop anyway, this is trading, not betting on the wind direction!
Tesla, after hitting twice the reaction, has gone through. Next one is very close, so better be careful!
Bitcoin: does anyone care about Bitcoin anymore? Maybe you should! Next objective is 13230$, which means the gain for 2020 could be close to 100%, compared to current 10% on S&P500, before the US election…
Sorry it has been a while since last post, I have been busy with the Cozy Dragon Research team about their discoveries. Digging in the data, and starting from the fact that Gaussian distribution is a scam for stock market data, many doors keep opening in the way we analyze this data. Exponential distributions are key of course, but even then as we focus on longer time analysis, we find that data is spread is in many populations, themselves are within an exponential distribution! There is therefore a fractal statistical Laplace structure. We can identify clearly what some call the smart money, then the money of everybody, and it all reflects the opinion diversity…
Let’s stop on that and come back to real market, where our goal is of course to make as much money as possible!
Unlike those waiting for Fed money, we want to profit from market meanders. The proximity of US elections, and Trump having caught COVID-19, and … Nothing gives us better indication that mathematics.
We left S&P500 between the last 2 reactions lines, and I told you it was mirroring the end of summer 2019. The move was much more violent this time but as you can see it ended exactly at next reaction line. The weather should be more quiet from now. The trend is of course still very bullish.
Nasdaq is same configuration. Those would wanted a strong correction will need to wait some more!
Our friend Tesla is blocked by a reaction line but bulls are still pushing to go through.
We can not anticipate of course what the many investors have in mind. Maybe Trump will recover from the virus and win in a landslide, in which case, the bull market will continue and take a deep breath after November. Maybe Biden makes it to the White House and many will go short on the market. A down wave is surely to be expected, but the exact timing it is starting is the biggest question. Not just now…
Don’t worry, we are not there yet, only one big drop on Monday when everybody sold what they have, as the little tiny virus does not seem to want to vanish.
From the long term perspective, always good to look at kagi graph:
A 3-Buddhas top pattern is now obvious, and prices have gone to the ‘yin’ side. As you can see by the average in dotted line, the trend is still very bullish on Nasdaq….
Let’s take a closer look at with candlestick chart:
The first objective is reached!!! So Nasdaq kindly bumps back to north direction. Does not mean it will not go through the floor in next couple of days, that is when you want to go short, but as usual, in intelligent manner, not risking you pants and shirts!
That’s it for today. Busy with other stuff. Until next time, trade safely!
Volatility is still quite high out there, so the chances of big downfall are somewhat limited, … but non zero!
The graph of Nasdaq will show it all:
There is a nice divergence with WAD2.0 indicator and my personal indicator indicates a correction is already taking place, which is true. But before taking a position, you need to ponder about the volatility and objectives.
Volatility is still high, but a down move results in increasing volatility. So the best shorts start from small volatility. As said before, volatility and price objectives are closely linked together. 8940 is probably worst case objective but reaction lines (not shown) tell me it is an improbable scenario (at least not in straight line). I therefore favor more horizontal wandering for some time, … until we get exciting news like end of pandemic, or US election, or ????