[Big Blog Theory] Standing at the crossroads…

Browsing through the comments, I see many readers are frustrated because this blogs looks cool, maybe the perfect blog, although I never planned for that! I assume those readers have followed some training on blogging and are now at the crossroads: should I blog or should I go?

The very first thing you need to do after training, whatever subject, is to challenge what you have learned and especially the assumptions. You are not blogging to have a cool blog, you are blogging to connect to other people, so you need to take interest in them, and talk to them in efficient manner. Video may be too intrusive, emails lost in spam folder, … Subjects that usually interest people are money (this blog is primarily about making money), power and sex (health by extension). If you want to blog about cars, better talk about Ferrari (this blogs talk about Ferrari too!) than Chevrolet Volt!

Then, there is only one book you need to read. It is this one. The extra short summary is listen (or read forums for instance), discuss what matters and leave others a little better. I am sure you already feel a bit better after reading this!

If you are interested in the subject, I will post a few technical articles about digital marketing by a dedicated reader analyzing this blog!

Again, no, I will not post videos. When you are reading this blog, you ought to sit down and think quietly about what is written. I can not invade your space. I will be listening to your comments. I will meet new crossroads for sure but I am happy to share my journey!

What about a little music now?

Talk to you then!

S&P500 market analysis June 12th 2020

I wrote a warning on Monday morning (see previous post) that passing a reaction line is a sometime precarious event and markets usually make tops or bottoms on this occasion. Please remember that tops are mirrors of bottoms from the past. The accuracy is not perfect but if you ‘add’ the gaps, then you fall back on your feet!

Similar to previous market action shown in ellipse, S&P500 has moved above the reaction line and then fell down back on it yesterday. In theory, our drunkard can walk down to 2800 and 2685 afterwards. The uptrend is still there, so you should not worry too much and it will open some buying opportunities on many stocks already in up-trend.

A quick note about comments

While I see genuine comments, I guess many are also an opportunity to post links to your own business. While I do not mind which business you are in, I do think that relying on chance of someone clicking on your name in the comments section is not the best way to get opportunities for you. I do understand that even one click out of ten thousands can make your business profitable but it clearly does not help the blog writer to have comments from ‘b.tt pl.g’ or ‘huge cl.t’. Sorry you should not read this if you are under 18. I am not after huge audience, only people authentically interested by the subject. From now on, please consider a cool name like ‘Warren B.’ or ‘Barrack O.’ and you can still link to your site if you wish. I will be more cautious from now on when validating comments!


Random comments, some answers, and other random thoughts…

Thank you all of you for writing supportive comments. This blog is, as far I know, absolutely unique, I have no competition! Maybe I should charge a few hundred bucks just for viewing,… just kidding!

I am going to answer here in bulk manner to the comments.

The blog platform

The blog is powered by WordPress but is an offshoot provided by https://vivaldi.net/ Vivaldi is an awesome browser, but they also offer a free web-mail, a very good alternative more privacy focused that Gmail and similar, plus a free blog. You can have your blog up and running in less than 10 minutes. Should you start your own blog on a related subject, let me know and I will reference here. You are also welcome as guest writer on this blog.

The blog is surely working with latest navigators such as Firefox or Vivaldi, but you may experience problems with old Internet Explorer.

Starting a new blog

I am no guru about blogging, I am sure you can find good material on the web. I started out with same idea as the posts I write: Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS). After a few months of writing, I see audience is increasing through number of real comments (not spam), so great!

Pretty much you can revive your old desktop with a new wallpaper, you need a good picture so that your blog looks good. I recommend your browsing Deviant Art, they have plenty of original pictures and web art.

About comments

I don’t know how WordPress behaves when you leave a comment and if you get many annoying emails. If you come back often here, use a disposable email for entering public comments, e.g. this service or that one

Captcha for plug-ins: I do not know.

If you want more in-depth exchange, you are welcome to email me: dragon trader at vivaldi.net. Or @ randomerrance on Twitter.


I understand you can use this link: https://dragontrader.vivaldi.net/feed/

About statistics and probability

There is a big difference between these two notions and you must understand it. As finance often says “past performance is not indicative of future performance”. We may hate to say it, but they are right. You can calculate statistics of past performance, e.g the number of winning trades over last 10 years, the average performance, … and thus the overall expectation of the strategy. If the expectation was negative over the last 10 years, why do you believe it will work in the future?

Also as discussed in some posts, the probability of winning does not tell you anything else than, on average, you should win x% of the time and so you can experience long loosing streaks based on that probability. Also having a good probability of winning (say 51%) does not mean a positive expectation, you need to control the losses and make sure the gains fare much better than losses, at least 2x. Stock picking comes into play here: small volatility also means low risk of course but low gains, most often not good enough to have positive expectation. Trading is playing with stocks or securities that have the capability to land you big gains! Do not look too far: Apple is such one, as well as Microsoft or even Visa. Of course, many Nasdaq stocks such as Tesla are far better choices to push your expectations skywards!

Investment publications often boast about their past wonderful performances, they even sometime annualize the figures (e.g 1400% based on 1 trade that made 20% in 10 days!) but they never report publicly about their failed trades, their overall performance and expectation. Some may be quite good a stock picking, but you should always wonder whether the writer is not somehow the market maker, especially with small caps, so he needs many subscribers not only to have a very profitable newsletter but also moving the market in author’s intended direction! The folks are Sock Gumshoe do a wonderful work deciphering the teasing of such newsletters, so a good source to find trade-able stocks!

That’s it! until next time, trade safely!