The boring market report Feb 15th 2021

For bull traders, life is easy as I will show again in the next few graphs. Our random walk tells us tells us when to step in, then get out. Two options to get out:

  1. Partially on first price objective and then wait for the stop
  2. In case of time out (the observation period), try to exit on multiples of risks (the dotted lines)

Case in point with SOX. Price objective is recalculated each day, but the flat sections above major troughs are the ones we target. SOX is above the green belt, even making new highs. Just hold for now.

Tesla: you should start raising an eyebrow or two! See that divergence with MACD? Worth securing some profits…

Bitcoin is back up again after the January consolidation. Getting above the green belt was a good buy signal. It has already passed through the first objective (not shown) and it adheres to the second dotted line. Your stop should be bottom of the green belt for longer term, and top of belt for short term trading. Next objectives are 53700$ and 58200$. 50k$ might be a short term psychological blocking point but random walk says not to care!

Etherum is wonderful. No need to do anything.

That’s it. Until next time, trade safely!

The boring market report – November 10th 2020

In last report, I was bearish for the short term, all indicators pointing in same direction: south! Now there were the US elections, and then yesterday the possibility of the existence of an efficient vaccine. Please note that Joe Biden is not formally elected and the vaccine testing is not formally finished! But anyway, markets have decided to turn back north after 2 steps to the south. This happens from time to time, stops are there to save us from disastrous situations.

Let’s look at Semi-conductor index first. The divergence on MACD should have driven the index towards the South. However volumes (see previous post) did not increase on that scenario, so it was a dead end.

Where are we going next? I need to show the steps in the opposite direction!

The first objective has been reached already and attempt to go beyond has failed yesterday. Short term traders may short this situation but the long term is up so you may want to stay on board for now, going to 3000. 5G should push in this direction!

Same situation for other word indexes, no additional comments.

Bitcoin has reached and gone beyond initial objective, hope you are part of the trip! (See other comments on previous post)

That’s it for today. Until next time, trade safely!

The boring market report – October 28th 2020

Looks like the markets do not welcome this second coronavirus wave, not the wave itself, but rather the bad and worst decisions made by politicians! You should never panic because of sudden but announced meltdown, and again stick to our sound models!

S&P500: this will be the last time I am using these reaction lines (drawn end of March!), as the accuracy for top prediction is now failing. No big deal. Always double checking what the random walk model is telling me.

Following previous post, you see the MACD has been under its signal for a while, indicating downside pressure. First objective is 3094, due after the US elections, so another 10% to go. If might go further down, pending on lock-down conditions, as they say. The truth is that the market will go up if there are buyers, lock-down or not! If investors think all the GAFAM will be at bargain price when S&P500 reaches 3100, then market will resume up trend.

The SOX (or Semi-conductor Index) usually anticipates what’s coming up. No light to expect for now, as there is a divergence with MACD.

Speaking of Apple, the kagi graph is showing interesting things. A 3-buddhas top appeared by mid-September but because of strong uptrend, I deferred my idea of shorting Apple. Then a double window bottom has formed, a strong indication of further uptrend. Markets may be in bad mood for next few days but quarterly results may bring back confidence! Remember that the recent growth of Apple is before all due to buyback, a gift for shareholders who don’t get too much dividends otherwise. You might be bullish because of the upcoming 5G trend on smartphones, but this stock is overvalued somehow. The question is compared to what? There is no absolute reference!

Gold has reached its downward objective end of October but may still go down some more, which is very good opportunity to buy. Rationale: as countries are printing more money by tons, the value of money goes down, and Gold which is limited in quantity can only go up!

I wrote two weeks ago you should look at Bitcoin. It has gone up almost 20% already. On the way to 100k$!

That’s it! Until next time, trade carefully!