Category: Analyses

Inflation? Hyper-inflation? No, a conspiracy theory!

Have you noticed any inflation? Pasta price up, gaz price up, … Everything you can buy, price seems to go up! According to IMF, it is only temporary and if you say otherwise, you are a conspiracy theorist! I must be one then :-))

Covid Kingdom is still under construction and they want each and all of us to participate in this exciting new adventure where a few people own everything and you get nothing, you will be enslaved to your master. There is one thing however that will make them fail: they are extremely bad economists, they are playing with the money and the money is exploding right now into hyper inflation fireworks, which will signify the end of the game not too far away! Get Gold, get bits of Bitcoin and you should be safe.

Bulls are still out there, because plenty of cash is there so only few industrial constraints prevent from going higher faster. This is what we see on Semi Conductor index:

Price Channel have no specific sense but you see that the one I draw is in sync with medium and long term indicators. Only short term shows weakness. Silicium might be missing so companies like Qualcomm will only increase their selling price while waiting to manufacture more. There can still be a drop to 3000, which be a good oppoortunity to invest, especially in light of 5G deployments.

Coming back for a second on inflation, you can see below that ground coffee price has just doubled in 2021. Here is the deal: consider how many coffee you drink in a year, do you yourself a favor by buying stocks of a coffee company, they give dividends so you get free coffee!

I always mention oil on this blog, because without oil, our society will just stop! No more cars, no more plastic, … Green electricity will not replace oil. Take a note: green electricity will not replace oil. NEVER!

Crude oil is up 10% since last post. Good for your portfolio. Of course, you need to have many stocks of Exxon, BP, … if you want them to pay oil for your car with dividends. At least, it may buy you extra free coffee!

If you wonder why gaz is more and more expensive, just look at the chart: +128% since Jan 1st! This is not going to stop any time soon. Windfarms are deployed everywhere, but since wind is not a continuous supply, then you need a gas power plant to manage electrical grid. Gas supply being limited by other geopolitical issues, price can only go up!

Last one for today is Bitcoin. BTC is still quietly hanging around, gathering ressources for the next leg. This next leg will be up towards 100k$. That is because of wider adoption (Salvadore, …), it is safer than fiat money, it does not have a country (miners can hop to new country any time), transactions costs become faster and cheaper with Lightning network. While I expect price will go down to 35k$, I am waiting for this cheap entry!

That’s it for today. Until next time, trade safely!

There is no such thing as self-fulfilling prophecies!!

Extract from Britannica:

Self-fulfilling prophecy, process through which an originally false expectation leads to its own confirmation. In a self-fulfilling prophecy an individual’s expectations about another person or entity eventually result in the other person or entity acting in ways that confirm the expectations.

A classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy is the bank failures during the Great Depression. Even banks on strong financial footing sometimes were driven to insolvency by bank runs. Often, if a false rumor started that the bank was insolvent (incapable of covering its deposits), a panic ensued, and depositors wanted to withdraw their money all at once before the bank’s cash ran out. When the bank could not cover all the withdrawals, it actually did become insolvent. Thus, an originally false belief led to its own fulfillment.

We live in a world full of narratives, that we are asked to believe without asking questions. Most common ones are “Covid19 jabs work as expected” or “climate will be so hot by 2100, it will be a great disaster”. Those making those prophecies have no capability to justify their statement, so they have engaged in a deception process, which they can no longer escape, or at the price of their future if any. For jab, it is easy to manipulate data, hide facts about adverse reactions, … For climate, you won’t be there to verify since you will have died from the jab long before!

Those who disagree with the official prophecies are nicknamed conspiracy theorists, which is the ultimate insult to stop any debate about any topic. Now, we can look at these conspiracies theorists prophecies, right? All that they have predicted for the last 18 months is happening even faster than they would have imagined: vaccination failures, lockdowns, blaming non vaccinated, future climate lockdown, forever pandemic, …. Self-fullfilling? No! With the help of internet, these guys are very well informed, and read quite well through the plans, which makes politicians nervous and forced to accelerate in vain attempt to take back control.

Here is one of those idiot:

J. Trudeau is an imbecile! He has taken away freedoms from the people for a ridiculous virus, freedoms that they fought to get over the centuries, and now he will only give them back only if they take a poison pill!

Here is my prophecy for Trudeau and alikes, when jabbed people will wake up. There will be no mercy!

Is It Inevitable? « Mark America

Climate warmists are no better, they try to spread fear and have started almost 20 years ago a narrative prophecy, whereby climate is changing fast due to human produced CO2. There is of course no proof of relationship between CO2 level and climate behavior. At time of dinausors, CO2 level was twelve times higher, the tree were gigantic size compared to today… but anyway, since people don’t ask questions, it is a good reason for future climatic lock down, where all data will be manipulated, there will be C02 passports, and who knows, maybe even CO2 vaccines!

Here is the key: ASK QUESTIONS! DON’T GIVE UP UNTIL YOU GET A FULLY JUSTIFIED ANSWER! No adverse reactions on vaccine? Show me the proof! You want report from hospitals! CO2 impacting temperature? Show me the corresponding studies, correlations over centuries, and show me data integrity!

Coming back to finance, Janet Yellen makes a prophecy of severe upcoming financial crisis if debt ceiling is not raised: rocketing intest rates, stock market crash. It is precisely BECAUSE of this debt ceiling raise THAT interests rate will eventually go up (hyper-inflation like) and that stock market will crash. Course n°1 or 2 in economics for dummies!

So again you should wonder and ASK QUESTIONS before the corrupted governments tries to dry your accounts because you are not jabbed, you have a car that is polluting too much CO2 and you have invested in stock markets, you little stupid!

Market Review

S&P is still in strong long term uptrend (above the blue river). There is a divergence (smoothed ROC second indicator) which points to possible trend change. Short term indicator at the bottom shows its third short signal in 3 months, which we can use for covering portfolio and more should market reverse).

Bitcoin is still up as well but you can see that bottom the short signal. Since we can not short Bitcoin, I am waiting for this short signal to reverse, might be the start of next move towards 75k$. Reason being US$ value going down as debt ceiling is raised. Philosophical question: is debt a currency? :-))

SOX (semi-conductor index) is important index to follow as it has some predicitive power. Semi-conductors are needed everywhere (for AI, 5G, …) so if sector is not looking good, expect some nasty wave on technology sector! What does it do? Slower than before but up! So my prediction is market crash is delayed! You can ask me questions, I will answer! :-))

Oil is flashing a buy signal. Not good if you need to refill your car tank but having stocks like OXY and you get a refund via stock price increase and good dividends! Do not forget electric cars together with wind farms and solar panels will just not work (you will be able to recharge your battery once a month at best and at huge price). Oil price will go up, same as CO2 explained last week! Get ready for it!

That’s it for today.

I might loose my job in the future in line with ‘no jab no job’ policy in my country. I will surely have plenty of time to write by then. You can support if you wish with BCH address:

qquemq7cq6swh80c3rp99dq7vs8547r6t58vc7eq0r

That’s it for today. Until next time, trade safely!

Back on the saddle! An other market boring report!

Sorry for long silence. Plenty of business to attend, not talking fighting for freedom in our countries, which must be your priority! Go to demonstrations, make plans should the worst happen like in Australia, help as much as possible the revolution leaders whether they are politicians, lawyers, … Wake up the sheeps if you can and take names of all the traitors who are on their knees in front of corrupted governments!

I will try to help you make some money by in-depth market analysis. But remember it is no advice. You have to think about it and consider your own personal situation. Bet 100$ on a crypto if you can afford it and maybe you will get 1000$ sooner than you think, but keep in mind you might loose it all if you enter the market in awkward manner!

Market overview

S&P500 is still going to the moon, so it seems. See how it bumps regularly on the dynamic random walk lines. Trend is still hugely positive. There is indeed a divergence with the PPO below, but only a close below the green channel would indicate market witness.

September is usually a poor month to invest, at least from statistical perspective. But worst month is … October! A drop to 4000 (lowest line below the last top) is in theory possible. If it happened, then just take the opportunity to invest in strong companies like Apple!

What is Crude Oil doing? It does not seem to be up and the down move started in July seems to be completed. If you don’t know, then market is just flat! Traders probably play in what they perceive as horizontal channel, we don’t care and wait for a bullish sign.

If there is one market where you shoud be invested, it is …. COAL!!! Coal is good for the planet, whatever those ecologists are telling you. Plants benefit from carbon and give you more oxygen. Carbon is not responsible for climate change, mother Earth does what it wants and men is responsible of all the chemical pollution, but ecologists will ignore your questions, should you ask. So Carbon is becoming more expensive through some interesting financial tricks (pollution allowance, …) and since solar pannels and wind farms will NEVER alone power the world, coal (and Uranium) are your best bet for years to come (unless humanity comes back to some reason!)

Crypto Market

Crypto market is the place to be when cryptos fly towards the moon but a place to be avoided in other circumstances. Sure enough, central banks printing money by gigantic amounts, the value of any active asset, such as Bitcoin, can only go up, whatever happens, even if governments tried to forbid its existence, because … nobody is in charge! You kill it and it will be norn again 2 minutes later!

Bitcoin, pretty much like oil, is gently drifting horizontally. The south objective is 35k and northern one is 70k. This might continue for one or two months.

This is a more interesting crypto called SOLANA. Huge increase since mid-July (which I did not manage to catch!) and predictably, a retracement is on-going. I am looking at buying trade around 110$.

This is Solana 1h graph. Note the volatility! The objective of the down move has been reached, which you may call a support! This tells me it may not go further down for now.

That’s it for today. I will write at least once a week. If you want to support this blog, I am showing my Bitcoin Cash address on the right side! We never know where market is heading, so be careful.

Until next time, trade safely!

1789 – 2021 French Revolution returns?

2 years ago, I would never have thought we would have one day to fight for our freedom, freedom of movement, freedom of thought, freedom to be what we want to be! But here we are now, Europe is the epicenter of a move towards a new dictature. Pandemic is used as an excuse to put in place extremely intrusive systems that spy onto your private life 24 hours a day, 365 days per year. With the bold reasoning that it may help if a new pandemic showed up! I am making in this post bold predictions about what is coming up in the next few months!

Europe is the place that has been chosen to start putting in place the new dictature. 99% of media are now muzzled, journalists are telling only what they are allowed to, social media are flocked by pro-government trolls, people are muzzled physiscally and psychologically, including children at school. This is working currently because of this rule:

Jab is the tool that is going to give you back your freedom.

Really?

Sticking strictly to data provided by government themselves (meaning seriously underestimated), about 10% of jabbed experience serious adverse conditions, including death. There is no way to know what are the long term impacts to health. The vaccine does not immune you to the Covid as shown by UK figures and tatest so-called indian variant! My guess is it won’t be long now before even the jabbed people find out they have been too naive, they have been tricked to get a poison into their body, and there will be no pity for the folks responsible for these actions!

France has had a long history of fighting for freedom. I won’t surprise if the revolution starts from Paris. Though I am against violence, it is very likely that guillotine will be brought out of garage, government, senators and member of parliaments who did not protest will be trialed hastily by popular courts. Would be sound decision for religious extremists and other ‘woke’ organisation to make plans to leave the country or face similar judgement for lacking respect to France values.

Then there will be no stopping the wave of freedom. It will immediately spread to neighboring countries, including Switzerland kicking out the infamous World Economic Forum. Wave will continue to Eastern Europe, EU will be a ruin, Wladimir Poutine will likely find a way to control this wave in Russia. China may also be have some difficulties fighting its own hundreds of millions of people crying out for freedom. North Korean system may crash as well. The Federal System in USA will also explode, the central bankers throughout the world judged for their sheer incompetency. Eventually the folks responsible for the Covid ‘virus’ will be identified, it will much shorter than a main stream media investigation, maybe they should start flying to Mars right now for their safety.

I don’t know when this will start, but could be before the end of summer…

——- end of predictions ——

Back to a more commonplace subject. Markets have been very dull. Crypto market has been and still is down, so 100% cash. The stock market is painfully keeping its up trend, so I have not changed a line in my porfolio, not adding or removing anything. Based on above predictions, of course, I advise to get gold:

Gold is out of the water, first objective has been reached. Gold could reach 2600$ in less than 2 years. Should the revolution come, Euro will most likely go to zero, so you will be happy to have gold. Also remember that inflation is there and observable in consumer prices (perceived inflation). So Gold and gold miners are a good investment (but careful about scams if selecting a gold mine!!). That is a scam too:

Semi-conductor index SOX is up, next objective is 3500. Lack of semi-conductors on the markets drives the demand, so all those semi-conductors manufacturers will benefit.

Crypto market is bullish over the long term, but still bearish in medium term. Bitcoin still defines the trend, altcoins have trouble to decorrelate.

New target is 59k, lower that previously reached so I am a bit pessimistic for long term. Once again, if revolution occurs, then € or $ may go to zero, and people will likely choose a privacy coin to to exchange with each other. There are plenty of them: Komodo, Monero, Dash, Pirate Chain, … Maybe worth having a few dollars in each of them….

That’is it! Unitl next time, trade safely!

Bitcoin: Time for Sales! 25% off! Sales!!

At last!! An expected and welcome correction on Bitcoin.

MACD is still positive so it is not a bearish trend change. Volumes are increasing on this last move, so it is very possible for Bitcoin to reach my random walk objective of 41800$

Once we get there, higher than the November low, we will obviously have an hidden divergence on MACD, Bitcoin should go back up from there. Careful, however, wherever Bitcoin goes afterwards back up, the market will be in unstable configuration, which might bring it down to 20k$, which be of course a huge buying opportunity. We are not there yet!

Until next time, trade safely!

How long does it take an average bloke to power on a light bulb?

You might think this post is about joking, maybe not so, but I will attempt to make you smile. We are living in a world that has gone insane because not only people are not thinking any more, but they also let others think on their behalf. As I have been advocating many times on this blog, thinking by yourself will let you see the light! Let’s go through many examples of current lunacy.

  • Let’s start with mainstream economists. They are usually the laughing stock of deep thinkers. Now they are telling us that debt, whatever the size, does not matter any more because the cost is so low that the interests needed to be paid back are smaller than 20 years ago. Yeah right! But are we not supposed to pay back the capital at some point? And what if interest rate go back up? (because they will!)
  • Ecologists are a cute little specie without brain and absolutely zero scientific or human psychology knowledge. They keep repeating what a group of idiots called Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ) under United Nations Organization are saying. Those guys have established a correlation between CO2 level and Climate warming. It does not take long to look at raw data and see that this correlation does exist, but only from time to time! Data from last 20 years (average temperature has not gone up) is therefore ignored. Instead they claim that a 2°C increase by 2100 will be a total disaster for the planet (most of us will not be there to verify that claim anyway) and it legitimizes the attempt from Bill Gates to cool the climate by throwing chalk in the atmosphere, thereby …. choking (pun intended) in the process any existing life in that area. Totally insane. Why 2°C? Why not 1.5°C? or 3°C? Are oceans really going to immerse vast land areas (Archimedes would laugh at this idea!)? Relying on wind on solar energy only, will people accept to have electricity only during windy or sunny weather?
  • Green growth is also a chimera. Electric cars don’t do more than fuel powered cars, so when you switch to ‘green’, you create jobs for electrical car manufacturers but delete many more with traditional care makers. Negative impact again!
  • The pandemic and vaccine strategies clearly show how quickly our politician have reached burn out status due to smaller than average number of neurons in their brains! Imagine a vaccine based some technology born in the 1960’s but never approved for commercial usage, being suddenly approved for huge clinical trial…. It should make you wonder and investigate. The mRNA can modify your DNA. You are not eating transgenic wheat, right? And you want your genes to be modified without the knowledge of the impacts in 2 or 5 years? You are NOT a conspiracy theorist when asking questions, whatever they say!!

If you don’t know how to ask questions, go back to history and read old wisdom books. The old Chinese book ‘Tao Te Ching’ will definitely ignite brain power, then continue… there are thousands of books to read. You will also find that strong limbs, biceps, triceps, … muscles are best tools when coping with stress wherever it comes from, some Daoyin (Chinese) movements will help you think more clearly too! You may also humbly read again previous blog posts such as this one about challenging assumptions…

How long will it take you to switch on the light bulb? That is the question!

You may end up with different conclusions, those are mine:

  • Dismantle those idiotic and useless organizations such as IPCC mentioned above, but also IMF, WHO, WEF, EU, … because they are led by insane people.
  • Dismantle Facebook and alike which make you waste your time without being paid back, and prevent you from thinking by yourself!
  • Spread sound culture, always get back to basis when needed. Have a good relationship with money
  • Prevent finance from playing with money or our savings. French Bank Societe Generale currently wants to issue a product made of a bond and an option, all secured by Tezos blockchain. When it all fails, they will blame crypto technology!!
  • <add your conclusions in the comments!>

Let’s finish this post by a look at Bitcoin chart. Yes Bitcoin is possibly a kind of Ponzi scheme where new entrants are paying for those who want to get out. But, by blaming Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, the crypto haters make buying opportunities for open minded traders who are trading, not investing in the long term (HODL). For as long as crypto’s are allowed, then there is profit to be made!

My red objective was reached (64891 vs 64808 calculated!) even before reaching the reaction line. Hidden Divergence with MACD, moving average still pointing north, and more than average volume points to a recovery in coming days but we have to be careful. Closure under 52k and I am out for the short term. On the longer term, I am out under 46k.

That’s it. Until next time, use your brains to trade safely!

The boring market report April 7th 2021

The so-called pandemic continues to weigh on some parts of the world (e.g Europe) while some countries like US or Russia seem to see the light at the end of the tunnel! We will therefore continue to be driven by good news but also possibly by new lock-downs as politicians find it is convenient to keep people under control … until people awaken!

Bitcoin is still floating at high levels. Many expect a sharp correction to 40k or even lower, which is not impossible as can be seen in the short history of Bitcoin. Others still point at even higher targets.

I have been a bit too optimistic as can be seen from chart below:

After going through reaction line, there was just no resistance but the problem is volumes did not pick up immediately, resulting in this range bound market. As long as Bitcoin hovers over green average, no worries, I am not changing my position.

Tezos reached my objective almost on time, landing me a cool 40% profit! Nothing to be proud about that. Trade is not over, the volumes, as opposite to Bitcoin, are picking up and reactions lines will most likely be broken for further up move.

Nasdaq has resumed its uptrend in strong volumes. The new objective is 14130 points. A divergence with MACD histogram tends to confirm new all time highs are coming. Before going full speed, just spend some time a weekly chart below: no major correction since early 2020, plus a MACD with stratospheric value and a divergence with MACD histogram indicates some trend change in the future (remember it can be down or just an horizontal wandering)

I was kicked out of the Moderna trade for a small loss. What happened?

MRNA had made a bottom on orange reaction line (blue circle)and started an up move after down slopping the blue reaction line. Volume was low but I thought divergence MACD and its histogram would support me. Market thought otherwise, volumes did not pick up and MRNA even crashed the orange reaction line, which told me to get out even before my stop was triggered! See you on next reaction line, maybe…

That’s it for today. Until next time, trade safely!

Tezos – new departure to the moon?

I possibly mentioned Tezos earlier. Maybe I had not drawn the action and reaction lines. As can be seen from graph below, the trend is still up, Tezos has been taking some leisure time around the reaction line and seems to be going up again. You can draw triangles if you wish, but note there is no special scientific theory backing up such figures!

On the downtrend from 5$ to 3$, of course volume was big, it has decreased a lot but stays at high level. This is why we want to stay with the major trend which is up! Divergence between MACD and its histogram also points to same conclusion. The next reaction line is quite far away, objective could be reached by end of March if we are lucky and market is strong enough!

How do I play it?

I already have a position that I bought at 2$ (green arrow) and I halved it at 5$ (objective was 4.57$). New objective is 6.23$, 40% on top of current price with a stop at 3.70$. So I am buying half a position to restore one full line, half a line invested for as long as long term trend is up, the over half is trading to increase profits. The stop applies only to half my position.

That’s it. This is no recommendation of course. Until next time, trade safely.

Moderna – could the vaccine make your money?

Whether you are anti-VAX or not does not matter, money does not smell! Let’s look quickly at Moderna chart.

My system rings the bell, saying there might be an opportunity today. The 9-day average is point up, as well as the 48 which is still bullish. Only the blue 18-day is still showing negative slope.

The objective (drunkard theory) is 200$ and as can be seen from reaction line, there is zero resistance in the near future. Nothing seems to prevent reaching the objective. Stop of course at 126$

But wait? MRNA is down 7% today… it it? That’s good because distance to stop was big at close yesterday, meaning your position should be small, whereas today we can have either a bigger line or stay with small line but with a better risk/reward ratio!

This is no advice of course. This is how trading goes, we take the bet, and if we are stopped out, then it’s life, we cut the line and forget about MRNA.

That’s it. Until next time, trade safely!

Bitcoin: when is the story going to end?

Sorry I have been away for a few weeks to attend other businesses. I was also working on the future eBook which is not as easy as writing for a blog. There must balanced information, not too much to avoid overwhelm reader but enough anyway to kick curiosity and critical thinking! So should I write about inverted Laplace transform? Well answer is yes, but I need to make it simple for casual reader out there!

For this return I am going to talk only about Bitcoin, which has gone again over the roof. You may see everywhere Bitcoin is a gigantic bubble that will explode maybe tomorrow morning, leaving all of those with fortunes in Bitcoins … broke! Nothing can be further from truth, because as long as some countries tolerate Bitcoin as a concurrent to local currency somehow, those who forbid are also getting late on its technology and all the improvements it can bring in terms of security, cryptography, …

The ‘problem’ with Bitcoin lays probably with the price paid to miners which is halved every 4 years, and so Bitcoin price has to go up or the mining can not be profitable over the long term. That being said, price has only one direction over the long term: it is UP! Until it is pushed out forcefully by a better bitcoin….

Let’s look at the chart:

I have drawn the action-reaction lines, which is the only way to predict when and where the next top might take place. There is hidden symmetry in the market which you can see clearly, Bitcoin has been stopped by down slopping reaction line then wen through when many weak hands thought Bitcoin was going down back to 10k$.

There is almost zero resistance now until beginning of April. I expect the trend will be a bit slower. From exponential, coming back to parabolic more sustainable move is all we want!

That’s it! From now on, I will post some trading opportunities on some selected Nasdaq stocks with action-reactions line for your reading pleasure.

Until next time, trade safely!

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