Tag: tezos | Cozy Dragon Trading Club

The boring market report April 7th 2021

The so-called pandemic continues to weigh on some parts of the world (e.g Europe) while some countries like US or Russia seem to see the light at the end of the tunnel! We will therefore continue to be driven by good news but also possibly by new lock-downs as politicians find it is convenient to keep people under control … until people awaken!

Bitcoin is still floating at high levels. Many expect a sharp correction to 40k or even lower, which is not impossible as can be seen in the short history of Bitcoin. Others still point at even higher targets.

I have been a bit too optimistic as can be seen from chart below:

After going through reaction line, there was just no resistance but the problem is volumes did not pick up immediately, resulting in this range bound market. As long as Bitcoin hovers over green average, no worries, I am not changing my position.

Tezos reached my objective almost on time, landing me a cool 40% profit! Nothing to be proud about that. Trade is not over, the volumes, as opposite to Bitcoin, are picking up and reactions lines will most likely be broken for further up move.

Nasdaq has resumed its uptrend in strong volumes. The new objective is 14130 points. A divergence with MACD histogram tends to confirm new all time highs are coming. Before going full speed, just spend some time a weekly chart below: no major correction since early 2020, plus a MACD with stratospheric value and a divergence with MACD histogram indicates some trend change in the future (remember it can be down or just an horizontal wandering)

I was kicked out of the Moderna trade for a small loss. What happened?

MRNA had made a bottom on orange reaction line (blue circle)and started an up move after down slopping the blue reaction line. Volume was low but I thought divergence MACD and its histogram would support me. Market thought otherwise, volumes did not pick up and MRNA even crashed the orange reaction line, which told me to get out even before my stop was triggered! See you on next reaction line, maybe…

That’s it for today. Until next time, trade safely!

Tezos – new departure to the moon?

I possibly mentioned Tezos earlier. Maybe I had not drawn the action and reaction lines. As can be seen from graph below, the trend is still up, Tezos has been taking some leisure time around the reaction line and seems to be going up again. You can draw triangles if you wish, but note there is no special scientific theory backing up such figures!

On the downtrend from 5$ to 3$, of course volume was big, it has decreased a lot but stays at high level. This is why we want to stay with the major trend which is up! Divergence between MACD and its histogram also points to same conclusion. The next reaction line is quite far away, objective could be reached by end of March if we are lucky and market is strong enough!

How do I play it?

I already have a position that I bought at 2$ (green arrow) and I halved it at 5$ (objective was 4.57$). New objective is 6.23$, 40% on top of current price with a stop at 3.70$. So I am buying half a position to restore one full line, half a line invested for as long as long term trend is up, the over half is trading to increase profits. The stop applies only to half my position.

That’s it. This is no recommendation of course. Until next time, trade safely.

The boring market report, Feb 3rd 2021

We talked about the short squeezes, which if coordinated, can lead to strong bull markets. This is usually the case when prices reach an area around the one year high, which is seen as resistance, and so many are shorting to benefit from a price reversal. This works from time to time, but the back testing does not validate it on markets, all stocks, … so be careful!

Coming back to our random market model, it is easier to pick up a trend when it starts, and drive it until it wears out. That is what I am doing with Bitcoin and Etherum. Bitcoin has walked back from its recent top to the random walk path (RWP) and is ready to pick up again. MACD is still largely positive, no reason to exit for now. A partial profit was of course welcome in January.

Etherum is even stronger. The RWP has not even pointed south one day! I don’t know if it will go to 100k$, but 1800$ is surely next target in the short term!