The boring market report – November 19th 2020

Crazy times since last report. Look at that beautiful Bitcoin chart!

If you read this blog quite often, you know I entered at about 6000$, then again at 9500$ and again at 11000$ in October. The profit is substantial for the year, why bother trading stocks and all the related work about finding when are next quarterly results, announcement, or FDA validation for biotechs, … And of course, all stock market indexes are beaten! Same is true with many other cryptos….

Those of you interested in Tesla, I wrote that I would short Tesla at some point when the conditions are there. True enough Ferrari has fared better than Tesla recently but not a chance to short TSLA. Why not? Because the volatility is too high, it works like air balloon and protects from the crash. The volatility must be small or even tiny, so it can go up in a downfall. Volatility on Tesla is still very high (30%+, personal scale) so waiting mode!

The MACD has actually taken a down slope, but the green average is up, kind of hidden divergence. So Tesla stays up in the air. It has even gone above the down-sloping last reaction line and may still go up now, along with billions of dollars printed by the Fed.

Nasdaq is also floating mid-air, not knowing where to go. I would not be surprise if the index blows off the 12500 level and then continues up into next year (the famous short squeeze!)

That’s it. Until next time, trade safely!

The boring market report – October 5th 2020

Sorry it has been a while since last post, I have been busy with the Cozy Dragon Research team about their discoveries. Digging in the data, and starting from the fact that Gaussian distribution is a scam for stock market data, many doors keep opening in the way we analyze this data. Exponential distributions are key of course, but even then as we focus on longer time analysis, we find that data is spread is in many populations, themselves are within an exponential distribution! There is therefore a fractal statistical Laplace structure. We can identify clearly what some call the smart money, then the money of everybody, and it all reflects the opinion diversity…

Let’s stop on that and come back to real market, where our goal is of course to make as much money as possible!

Unlike those waiting for Fed money, we want to profit from market meanders. The proximity of US elections, and Trump having caught COVID-19, and … Nothing gives us better indication that mathematics.

We left S&P500 between the last 2 reactions lines, and I told you it was mirroring the end of summer 2019. The move was much more violent this time but as you can see it ended exactly at next reaction line. The weather should be more quiet from now. The trend is of course still very bullish.

Nasdaq is same configuration. Those would wanted a strong correction will need to wait some more!

Our friend Tesla is blocked by a reaction line but bulls are still pushing to go through.

We can not anticipate of course what the many investors have in mind. Maybe Trump will recover from the virus and win in a landslide, in which case, the bull market will continue and take a deep breath after November. Maybe Biden makes it to the White House and many will go short on the market. A down wave is surely to be expected, but the exact timing it is starting is the biggest question. Not just now…

That’s it! Until next time, trade safely.

The boring market report – September 23rd 2020

Don’t worry, we are not there yet, only one big drop on Monday when everybody sold what they have, as the little tiny virus does not seem to want to vanish.

From the long term perspective, always good to look at kagi graph:

A 3-Buddhas top pattern is now obvious, and prices have gone to the ‘yin’ side. As you can see by the average in dotted line, the trend is still very bullish on Nasdaq….

Let’s take a closer look at with candlestick chart:

The first objective is reached!!! So Nasdaq kindly bumps back to north direction. Does not mean it will not go through the floor in next couple of days, that is when you want to go short, but as usual, in intelligent manner, not risking you pants and shirts!

That’s it for today. Busy with other stuff. Until next time, trade safely!

The boring market report – September 18th 2020

Volatility is still quite high out there, so the chances of big downfall are somewhat limited, … but non zero!

The graph of Nasdaq will show it all:

There is a nice divergence with WAD2.0 indicator and my personal indicator indicates a correction is already taking place, which is true. But before taking a position, you need to ponder about the volatility and objectives.

Volatility is still high, but a down move results in increasing volatility. So the best shorts start from small volatility. As said before, volatility and price objectives are closely linked together. 8940 is probably worst case objective but reaction lines (not shown) tell me it is an improbable scenario (at least not in straight line). I therefore favor more horizontal wandering for some time, … until we get exciting news like end of pandemic, or US election, or ????

The boring market report July 7th 2020!

If trading is your only occupation (not my case!), then life can be quite boring. The fact is you only need to wait… until there is a crisis or some excitement somewhere and then you enter the market, make your gains and go back to your boring life! Patience is key!

Summer time should be dull, shouldn’t it?

Anyway, a good time to look at all the funny articles on internet. Look at those two brilliant analysis:

What? One says 60k, the other one 1.8k? Predictions, pretty much like conspiracy theories, are fun to read but you can not make anything with this information!

Fact is bitcoin is enjoying for now a cool summer, on a small downward slope. Capital is flowing out quietly but Bitcoin stays above the random walk path. The objective for down move is about 8100$ but I do not see enough bearish energy. Should it resume the uptrend, then objective 10250$, not that much. Quite boring for crypto!

S&P500 continues on to next reaction line, which could be reached… next week! Maybe some sport is coming… or not!

As for the Nasdaq 100, a warning line was reached yesterday. As for S&P500, there is divergence with bottom indicator (the WAD2.0 if you follow!), only a warning of course. I hope you are in since mid-April, a stop at 10k is now the best idea you can have!

That’s it! Until next time, enjoy the summer, stay away from harmful virus and trade safely!