I wrote in some previous posts that volatility trading improves the performance of any trading system. Is it the case? Really? How better is it?
The goal of volatility analysis is to get rid of loosing trades as much as possible, so if you go from 30% winning rate to 60%, then number of consecutive loosing trades will be narrowed down, the overall profitability will increase.
Let’s start this demonstration with a simple yet very interesting trading system:
- Buy when close > SMA(9)(close) > SMA(18)(close) > SMA(50)(close)
- Get out of the market when close is crossing under the SMA9
Close is today’s closing price, so you buy at the opening the next day. SMA(x) are x days simple moving averages. I am not taking short positions for this exercice, the rules would be exactly opposite.
Here is the graph of Apple over last few months. The 3 moving averages are shown by red (9 days), green (18 days) and blue (50 days) color. Some entries are shown with green arrows and selling the position by red crosses.
Looks good, doesn’t it? As long as the stock is capable to trend and Apple perfectly fits this criteria, this trend trading system should be ok.
Let’s now run a systematic simulation for a portfolio (10k$) with only one line and re-invest 100% of the profits. Here is the result:
Over 20 years, you multiplied your capital by 8! Great 🙂
But a few considerations are needed:
- A buy&hold strategy would have yielded much more (x18)
- you get 35% winning trades, a win/loss ratio of 1.67, biggest gain is 14257$, largest loss is 6226$
- As expected from calculation in previous post, we can get a series 12 loosing trades in a row
Psychologically it is tough to handle, but could be worse. If you traded Cisco instead of Apple, the result is negative! That is because volatility is not big enough!
Now if you traded Bitcoin with this system, you are a billionaire! See the graph and report just below! Notice an almost 300M$ loosing trade, that is undoubtedly hard on the psychology!
Now I am adding volatility control on Apple, on top of previous one:
See? Now we multiply our initial capital by 41 (started from 100k$), beating by far buy&hold strategy! Now we get 68% winning trades, a win/loss ratio of 3.77, max 7 consecutive loosing trades but 16 long series winning trades 🙂
That’s it for today! Until next time, trade safely!
